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The Quarterly Journal of Economics 4 , , Review of Economics and Statistics 85 4 , , The difference would be potential headline rates for U. Broader October headline U. November 4th U.
Net of surging Construction Inflation, and sharp downside revisions to July and August activity, September Real Construction Spending declined for the seventh month of the last eight, with Third-Quarter activity showing a second consecutive quarterly decline. After two quarters of strong growth, Second-Quarter Real Construction Spending declined at an annualized pace of 8. Nominal September Construction Spending declined by a headline 0.
September Real Construction Spending declined by 0. Outside of the Pandemic-collapsed first two quarters of , that was the first quarterly decline in Real Final Sales since , late in the Great Recession.
Keep in mind that this is just the first go-round for the Third-Quarter GDP, with likely downside revisions in the next two months. The Consensus GDP outlook, which by its nature usually is on the optimistic side, finished at 2.
The annualized quarterly IPD of 5. Heavily disrupted by pandemic conditions, real year-to-year change in 3q GDP was 4. Getting around Pandemic disrupted reporting, real 3q GDP was up by 1. In contrast the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate GDP, corrected for the understatement of headline inflation used to deflate the headline GDP, which otherwise overstates real growth, showed an annualized real quarterly contraction of 0.
Net of an extreme nominal monthly September drop of Such also reflected a continuing nominal monthly decline of 2. Noted here frequently, the Census Bureau would do well to delay publication of its New-Home Sales numbers until they can be reported at a meaningful level of accuracy. September New-Home Sales jumped by Third-Quarter showed a meaningless annualized quarterly gain of 0. Year-to-year, September Sales declined by a meaningful September activity was up by 9.
September Sales were down by 2. Accounting for That gain from the Pre-Pandemic Peak reflected the respective Third- and Fourth-Quarter annualized surges of The First-, Second- and Third-Quarter annualized quarterly contractions respectively were That said, September Total Housing Starts declined by 1. The problematic Aggregate Building Permits series declined by 7. While Permits had gained at an annualized pace of At present, ShadowStats views Building Permits largely as a non-indicator, problematic, at best, given data issues that surfaced in the April annual benchmarking.
At that time, a large number of Building Permits ended up lapsed or expired due to COVID disruptions, a circumstance that appears to have some continuation here. As just revised, June Industrial Production was reported as 0. July activity now shows a recovery of 0. Where August Production had recovered by 0. The FRB estimated that about 0. All that said, Production in the Pre-Pandemic Peak month of February had been collapsing for the 18 months coming into the Pandemic, since August , and it still remains shy of recovering that August peak activity by 3.
Where current year-ago activity still was depressed heavily by Pandemic disruptions, ShadowStats looks at the economic recovery against Pre-Pandemic Peak PPP levels as a more meaningful measure of economic progress than the otherwise Pandemic bloated year-to-year change.
Monthly activity declined by 1. It also held shy by 3. Annual Manufacturing growth slowed to 4. Monthly activity declined by 0. Annual Mining growth slowed to 6. Monthly activity declined by 2.
It declined month-to-month by 3. With initial full reporting in place for Third-Quarter Retail Sales, early trends for a third-quarter annualized quarterly decline proved out for the series, both before and after inflation adjustment, against strong growth in Second-Quarter activity. Before inflation adjustment, Third-Quarter Nominal Retail Sales contracted at an annualized pace of 2. ShadowStats standardly removes growth due to inflation from the headline Nominal Retail Sales series, reporting it in Real, Inflation-Adjusted terms, deflated by the seasonally-adjusted CPI-U as otherwise calculated by the St.
Louis Fed. Net of inflation, headline September Real Retail Sales gained 0. Year-to-year changes in Real Sales, against year-ago Pandemic disrupted activity, were 8. Major factors at work in the September headline nominal numbers were the continuing monthly decline in Auto Sales and the continuing surge in inflation i. That said, Census went through extensive modeling, using prior, established Household characteristics to adjust the surveying for skewed reporting. In that context, the total number of people with earnings in versus dropped by about three million.
At the same time, the number of people employed full-time, year round dropped by about Williams is a native of Sacramento, California. In , following the completion of a doctorate in economics at Stanford University, Williams began his career as an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
In , he was promoted to senior economist and left the Federal Reserve System from to to serve as a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Williams remained at the Board of Governors until he joined the San Francisco Fed in as a research advisor.
He was named senior vice president and advisor in Economic Research in , and then was promoted to executive vice president and research director in Williams was appointed president of the San Francisco Fed in and led the Bank until Throughout his professional career, Williams has contributed to leading research journals.
His research interests include monetary policy under uncertainty and imperfect information; learning; research and development; innovation; productivity; and business cycles. He has collaborated with economists domestically and globally to examine economic and policy issues from different perspectives. Williams served as associate editor of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control from to , associate editor of the American Economic Review from to , and managing editor of the International Journal of Central Banking from to
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