Unlike average annual precipitation, almost the entire world is expected to see an increase in extreme precipitation as it warms. In other, words, heavy rain is likely to get heavier. You can see this in the figure below. Red areas show decreases in heavy precipitation, while blue areas indicate increases. The largest increases in heavy precipitation events on land are expected to occur over central Africa and South Asia.
On the other hand, North Africa, Australia, Southern Africa, and Central America may not see a noticeable increase in heavy precipitation. Percent change in heavy precipitation per degree warming, defined as the heaviest daily precipitation event of the year for each location. Figure adapted from Fischer et al While changes in rainfall and snow in a warming world are highly uncertain for many parts of the world, changes in future precipitation are only part of the story.
The snowpack is the snow that accumulates in mountains during winter and provides fresh water to the valleys below as it melts in spring and summer.
It is an important contributor to many rivers, and impacts river flow and water availability for agriculture, particularly in regions, such as California, where precipitation is concentrated in winter. Temperatures also impact the rate of evaporation, with higher temperatures leading to faster soil moisture loss and an increased need for irrigation in agriculture.
This means that, even for regions that are likely to get wetter, this will be largely offset by temperature-driven drying. While the impact of climate change on precipitation is fairly uncertain, we do expect with warming that many areas will experience more soil moisture droughts and declining runoff and streamflow resulting in an overall increase in drought risk and severity.
But the warming effect and impact of warming on evapotranspiration and associated drying happens over a much, much larger region. Changes in average precipitation is much more difficult for climate models to predict than temperature.
There are many parts of the world where models disagree whether there will be more or less rain and snow in the future. However, there are some regions, particularly the Mediterranean and southern Africa, where nearly all models suggest rainfall will decrease. Similarly, increases in rainfall are expected in high latitude areas, as well as much of South Asia. There is much more agreement by the models that a warming climate will increase the severity of extreme rainfall and snowfall almost everywhere.
A warmer world will, they project, also increase soil evaporation and reduce snowpack, exacerbating droughts even in the absence of reduced precipitation. Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email.
By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our Privacy Policy. Raindrops hitting a picnic table, Cornwall, UK. Zeke Hausfather China, for example, gets most of its rain and snow from evaporation over Eurasia. As the atmosphere gets warmer, it can hold more moisture.
The intensity of downpours and therefore the risk of floods depends in part on how much water the air can hold at a given time. The rate of evaporation from the ocean is increasing as the world warms.
Think about heating a large pot of water on your stove — the higher you turn the dial, the faster the water evaporates. Pretty much the same thing happens with the planet, and globally, this higher rate of evaporation contributes to more extreme rain and snow events.
Posted by Climate Reality on Wednesday, June 7, How can climate change increase our risk of both heavy rains and extreme droughts? Pendergrass, A. PubMed Article Google Scholar. Zobel, Z. Earths Future 6 , — Patricola, C. Nature , — Liu, C. Prein, A. Nature Clim. Change 7, — Download references. Career Column 12 NOV News 12 NOV Research Highlight 08 NOV Article 03 NOV Correspondence 02 NOV Article 08 SEP Article 04 AUG Southern Alberta Genome Sciences Centre.
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